Total North American auto sales are down 32% from October 2007 to October 2008 with November’s sales forecast not showing much improvement.

As the stock market continues its downward spiral and economic conditions deteriorate, consumers are talking online about holding tight to their wallets and are less likely to make a big purchase such as a vehicle.

The number of consumers that were seeking vehicle information on sites like AOL Autos, MSN Autos and Yahoo Autos began to decline around the June - July timeframe, which is exactly the same time that vehicle sales and the stock market began to fall. The unique audience levels for AOL Autos and MSN Autos have a strong correlation to vehicle sales especially in the last 3-months (1.0; 0.90 respectively); however, Yahoo Autos seems to be quite unique in the sense that over the last 12-months and even more recently there is no correlation between visits and sales (0.01, last 3-months).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) when compared to vehicle sales over the last 12-months is showing a solid correlation (0.75) and an even stronger correlation (0.96) within the last 6-months.

What’s interesting is that MSN Autos and Yahoo Autos witnessed a slight uptick in visitors (unique audience) from September to October, which indicates a renewed interest on the part of vehicle shoppers, perhaps due to recent incentives or falling gas prices. A similar phenomenon is occurring when comparing total online automotive ad impressions to vehicle sales as there is a strong rolling 6-month correlation up until the September and October timeframe when auto sales go down but ad impressions remain constant.

Regardless, the increase in shopping behavior and automotive online ad exposure may be a good sign for automakers as we close out the year. Many automakers and dealers are counting on this behavior translating to sales just in time for the holidays.

*Source: Nielsen Online Services: NetView, US Home & Work; AdRelevance; BuzzMetrics.

Tags: aol, auto, msn, yahoo

Here’s some data that provides an interesting perspective on the Google/Yahoo deal announced last week.

While this deal does seem to be a pretty clear win for both parties, the audience overlap data below suggests the possibility that we should be wary of the most optimistic incremental revenue scenarios. Given the fact that 77% of Yahoo searchers also search on Google, it is possible that there may be a material number of instances in which a person searches on Yahoo and does not click on a sponsored link, and then searches on Google and clicks on a sponsored link.

With the Yahoo/Google deal in place, this person would not need to execute the second search on Google. This would simplify the experience of the searcher, but would not generate incremental revenue for Google. Yahoo, however, would get a cut of search revenue that it would have otherwise lost. The scope of this behavior in the future may ultimately be what determines whether Yahoo or Google got the better end of the bargain.

Tags: google, search, yahoo