Analysis of November 2008 automotive industry online consumer-generated media shows a sharp increase in consumer attention to circumstances facing the Detroit Three automakers – GM, Ford, and Chrysler.  Skepticism regarding a “bailout” or government loans runs strong among individuals participating in online forums. After the first Congressional hearings in mid-November, reactions are widely dispersed across the Internet, appearing on forums and blogs discussing topics ranging from politics to theology.

Online consumers frequently question how the automakers will be held accountable for appropriately spending any government “bailout” or loan considerations, and compare and contrast the Detroit Three’s dilemma to that recently faced in the financial and commercial aviation industries. Consumers also discuss factors that have contributed to the success of Japanese-domestic brands such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, comparing these to the multitude of problems they perceive to be facing the Detroit Three.

Aside from the pervasive “bailout” buzz, many online consumers expressed enthusiasm and opinion regarding vehicle debuts at the Los Angeles Auto Show. Notably discussed vehicles included Ford Fusion and Mustang, Lexus RX, Mazda 3, and Nissan 370Z and Cube.

If you are interested in a copy of this Monthly Automotive Industry Overview, we’d be happy to share it with you. Please contact Larry Black at 562.947.2360 or larry.black@nielsen.com for a copy. We will continue to provide monthly blog updates with news about our latest automotive hot topics, and if you have suggestions for topics we should explore in the future industry overviews, these are welcome via blog comments.

A lot of folks have seen the Black Friday and Cyber Monday releases that we’ve put out, but we’ve also been tracking Web traffic on a daily basis - in total, by category, and by retailer since the Monday before Thanksgiving. Let me share a little bit more data:

Traffic was up by 10 percent on both of the high profile days, where consumers expected that they would be able to find deals. This is certainly better than some might have feared given the state of the economy. When we look at the other days of the week, however, the story is a bit more mixed. Traffic was down a bit on the Saturday and Sunday following Thanksgiving, was down three percent the Tuesday following Cyber Monday, and was up five percent the following Wednesday (December 3rd). If we took a simple average of the year over year growth rates for the Monday before Thanksgiving through Wednesday, December 3rd, the average daily growth rate, relative to 2007 is four percent.

Where it gets interesting, in case you’re not sitting on the edges of your seats already, is when we dig in by category.  The chart below looks at average daily growth, by category.

As you can see, category Web traffic is all over the place.  Beauty, Computer Hardware/Software, Books/Music/Video, General Retail (companies like Wal-Mart.com, Amazon, eBay, etc…) and Apparel are all up, while Toys/Videogames, Comparison Shopping, Jewelry, Flowers & Gifts, and Consumer Electronics are down.  It is important to note that this is a retailer-based classification, not a product based classification, so book traffic to Amazon falls under ‘general retail’ rather than under ‘books/music/video’.

The early prediction:  My instinct is that we will see online sales growth this holiday season, but it will be modest.  If I were forced to hazard a guess, it would probably be in the low single digits (2-4 percent) relative to last year.  I fear that because traffic is up on ‘promotional days,’ it might be an indication of a poor margin holiday season.  The next week and a half are going to be important, but the push by retailers between December 15 and 17th is going to be key.  Those are the days that will likely be the biggest of the year, despite the fact that there’s no catchy name.

Retailers might want to think about a catchy name.

Several “Connecting the Dots” authors have touched on the economy in recent days. As consumers’ healthcare costs continue to climb, it seems natural that healthcare cannot be immune to the effects of the downturn that has our world reeling. The New York Times on Tuesday published an article about a trend in patients stopping certain medications because they can’t afford them. Other news sources have reported on various patient cost-saving measures, from splitting pills in half to taking a medication every other day instead of every day.

I wondered if we would see evidence of this trend in our own data. Actually, I assumed we would and wondered just how prominent this topic would be in the online discussion we measure. There is definitely discussion of medication and affordability taking place within the blogosphere, with entry titles like “One Pill Left” and “I cannot afford to get sick” and the simple, direct “uggh.”

But what surprised me in looking at the broader trend of this discussion is that there has not been much of an increase in these messages over the past six months, as our BlogPulse data show:

There is a general upward trend in discussion of medication affordability, but it isn’t the steep climb I expected to see - aside from a noticeable peak in discussion during the week ending September 27 (which was the same week that the Dow experienced a 5% drop for the week and President Bush gave a primetime TV address to present his case for his $700 billion economic bailout plan).

To test the theory further, I compared two different sets of results: one that focuses on messages about not being able to afford medication, and another that uses the same search terms but excludes political discussion in the form of any mentions of McCain, Obama, election, politics, the economic bailout, the Medicare gap, etc. Still, the trend holds: the increase in blog posts about medication affordability is slight, not steep, despite the impact of recent changes in the economy.

It may be the case that people are just overwhelmed by concerns about the economy, to the extent that many aren’t talking specifics yet. Blogosphere discussion of “economy” significantly outweighs “healthcare,” as the following data show:

Will the days ahead bring a shift in discussion, with more mentions of medication affordability or specific steps patients take to manage their personal health and economic situation? Only time will tell, but it’s a trend worth watching.