Total North American auto sales are down 32% from October 2007 to October 2008 with November’s sales forecast not showing much improvement.
As the stock market continues its downward spiral and economic conditions deteriorate, consumers are talking online about holding tight to their wallets and are less likely to make a big purchase such as a vehicle.
The number of consumers that were seeking vehicle information on sites like AOL Autos, MSN Autos and Yahoo Autos began to decline around the June - July timeframe, which is exactly the same time that vehicle sales and the stock market began to fall. The unique audience levels for AOL Autos and MSN Autos have a strong correlation to vehicle sales especially in the last 3-months (1.0; 0.90 respectively); however, Yahoo Autos seems to be quite unique in the sense that over the last 12-months and even more recently there is no correlation between visits and sales (0.01, last 3-months).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) when compared to vehicle sales over the last 12-months is showing a solid correlation (0.75) and an even stronger correlation (0.96) within the last 6-months.
What’s interesting is that MSN Autos and Yahoo Autos witnessed a slight uptick in visitors (unique audience) from September to October, which indicates a renewed interest on the part of vehicle shoppers, perhaps due to recent incentives or falling gas prices. A similar phenomenon is occurring when comparing total online automotive ad impressions to vehicle sales as there is a strong rolling 6-month correlation up until the September and October timeframe when auto sales go down but ad impressions remain constant.
Regardless, the increase in shopping behavior and automotive online ad exposure may be a good sign for automakers as we close out the year. Many automakers and dealers are counting on this behavior translating to sales just in time for the holidays.
*Source: Nielsen Online Services: NetView, US Home & Work; AdRelevance; BuzzMetrics.
Tags: aol, auto, msn, yahoo
An analysis of October buzz for top luxury automakers reveals that key buzz spikes relate to consumer discussion of concept vehicles. Also grabbing consumer attention is the viral video series “Meet the Beckers,” which spoofs Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Lexus drivers; the first two episodes are among the top cited video links among consumers discussing these luxury brands.
Buzz shows that consumers are also speculating about mergers and takeovers in the automotive world. While several automakers have reportedly been involved in merger talks with Chrysler, a potential Chrysler/GM merger garners the most discussion. Consumers express numerous concerns about this possible merger and approach the topic with skepticism. Some feel both automakers have similar weaknesses and believe the merger would likely result in heavy job cuts. Others are voicing their opposition to the idea of the US government providing a loan to fund the merger.
The other key merger/takeover news making headlines in the automotive blogosphere is Porsche’s increasing its stake in VW. It generates only a fraction of the discussion that Chrysler merger rumors do, and consumer sentiment toward this business move by Porsche is more positive.
If you are interested in a copy of this Monthly Automotive Industry Overview, please contact Larry Black at 562.947.2360 or larry.black@nielsen.com for a copy. We will continue to provide monthly blog updates with news about the latest automotive hot topics. If you have suggestions for topics we should explore in the November overview, these are welcome via blog comments.
Tags: auto, chrysler, GM, porsche, vw
Social media continues to grow at a rapid pace. Facebook, for example, enjoyed a 115% increase in unique audience from September 2007 to September 2008 and a 66% increase in online discussion from December 2007 to October 2008.
As some of the largest advertisers in the world, it is important for the automotive manufacturers to understand the growth in this area. When looking at these audiences - and whether they are appropriate for an ad campaign or social media group - it is also interesting to understand what types of vehicles these visitors are more or less likely to own.
Facebook visitors are more likely to own a VW, Audi or Subaru, while myspace visitors are more likely to own a Mitsubishi or Pontiac. Facebook and myspace visitors are less likely than the average Internet user to own a Saab, Lexus, Cadillac or Lincoln .
*Source: Nielsen Online Services: @Plan Fall 2008, NetView US Home & Work; and BuzzMetrics.
Tags: auto, car, facebook, myspace
Within the whirlwind of negative news regarding the economy and the advertising outlook, I found a significant, welcome trend in the IAB’s recent revenue report covering the first half of this year. I’m scratching my head trying to understand why more hasn’t been made of this, because it portends hugely positive things for the online space.
The IAB recently announced a 15.2% year-over-year growth rate for Internet advertising for the first half of 2008. When you dissect the 15.2% number, some interesting details emerge. Out of nine industries tracked, only four have grown from last year. In and of itself, this finding would fall in line with all of the other negative things we’re hearing about the prospects for advertising.
However, look at the list of the four growth industries: CPG, Auto, Telco and Computing. Do you see what I see? These industries have consistently been the big overall ad spenders for a long, long time. Companies within these four industries make up 42 of the Top 100 national advertisers, and 52% of the advertising spend. And note that the two largest ad-spending industries, i.e. CPG and Auto, have been largely absent from the digital world until very recently. When you combine these four industries, their online ad spending grew 29.8% on a year-over-year basis from the first half of 2007.
The implications of all this? If the big ad spending industries continue to embrace the online medium more aggressively, chances are good that new, significant waves of growth are in the works for the interactive space. In his recent forecast, Jack Myers makes this interesting statement: “We are in the dead center of a two-decade industry transformation that began with the launch of Google in 1998. It will be 2012 before the industry of the future - the 21st Century model of the media and advertising industry - will begin to prosper.” While new technology trends typically get all the buzz, I have this sneaking suspicion that some of the leading advertisers that make up big ad-spending industries may be out-innovating all of us, and we will see new online market mojo well before 2012.
Tags: auto, computing, cpg, IAB, online advertising, telco
Recently the Nielsen Online Automotive Team developed and released to clients the premiere edition of our “Monthly Automotive Industry Overview.” In the wake of the surprising announcement that Chrysler will no longer offer vehicle leases, it seemed appropriate to focus our hot topic analysis on consumer discussions about leases.
We discovered that consumers rely on one another when researching vehicle leases online by asking questions, sharing lease experiences and directing others to Edmunds.com for more information. Our Association Map revealed that luxury brands and vehicles have the strongest association to lease discussion, while Chrysler and Cerberus emerge in late July as a main topic of lease conversation. Additionally, GMAC and Honda Finance are the only two financial institutions that are closely correlated to lease discussion.
In the coming months, each edition of the “Monthly Automotive Industry Overview” will include staple features such as top blog posts, most-cited online news articles, “buzz” trends of the top six automotive manufacturers, as well as the key topics that are influencing online discussion about the automotive industry. It will also showcase Web traffic metrics and a “hot topic” section designed to highlight the biggest news or emerging issues in the automotive industry for that month.
If you are interested in a copy of this first “Monthly Automotive Industry Overview,” we would love to share it with you. Please contact Larry Black at 562.947.2360 or larry.black@nielsen.com for a copy. Please remember to check back here each month as we continue to update the blog with news about our latest automotive hot topics.
Tags: auto, edmunds, lease
