Is “listening to the unprompted consumer voice” finally going mainstream?  Last month, Nielsen co-chaired a sold out Industry Leader Forum delivered by the Advertising Research Foundation (ARF). Among other things, the event focused on how social media is spurring online conversations about brands, companies, products and services. How do we ‘listen’ to these conversations? And how do we utilize these findings? These insights are expanding the role of research beyond measurement and testing, inspiring a new vision for market research. At this exciting event, I gave a presentation on the “Six Signals of Listening to the Unprompted Voice of the Consumer.” In the brief video below, I summarize key highlights from that presentation. In January. we’ll be co-chairing a similar event on the West Coast. Click here for more information.

We’ve spent a good deal of time at Nielsen lamenting some rough news in online advertising. Our estimates suggest that overall spending on display advertising has recently declined. And even the more optimistic estimates from the IAB, which account for additional interactive advertising segments, including search, suggest only a slight up-tick, 2%, on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Although the Internet is not suffering like print media , let’s just say we’ve all been through better times over the past couple of years.

With that said, let’s talk about a bright spot. Historically, the late spring and early summer have been the time when major films get hyped for the summer blockbuster movie season. Previously, this hype has been the providence of TV and to some degree print. What we saw for the first time this year was that the promotion of films moved to the Internet. There are a lot of good reasons for this - where else can you show a 4 minute preview and then have a person look up a nearby theater? More importantly, however, social media and the ability to really make films viral (a key component of buzz) appears to be a key driver, and one we will certainly look into next spring. Enough with the talk, let’s get to the numbers:

Through the spring, and peaking in June, we saw increases of 50% to almost 250% year-over-year. The top film advertisers for May and June were:

Clearly Regency (”What Happens In Vegas” specifically) was a big force here and it remains to be seen if they will continue to use the Internet, or how effective they found the medium, but this might be some good news during an otherwise glum year.

The thing is, the true test would be not just an impression table like above, but rather something like this, filled in of course:

Now we’re getting somewhere. This would 1) show us the real reach and frequency of an online push, and more importantly 2) begin to value each of the line items differently by showing how each modeled against actual results. We should assume that each of these has a different value; for example, Buzz is likely a much more powerful outlet on an “impression” by “impression” basis than display. If one person I trust recommends a movie, it seems like it would be immeasurably more impactful then a single banner ad.

Through using our new BuzzReach methodology, we can treat Buzz like ad impressions and through tagging we can pick up video, so this is now something we can do. Anyone want to give it a shot?

Total North American auto sales are down 32% from October 2007 to October 2008 with November’s sales forecast not showing much improvement.

As the stock market continues its downward spiral and economic conditions deteriorate, consumers are talking online about holding tight to their wallets and are less likely to make a big purchase such as a vehicle.

The number of consumers that were seeking vehicle information on sites like AOL Autos, MSN Autos and Yahoo Autos began to decline around the June - July timeframe, which is exactly the same time that vehicle sales and the stock market began to fall. The unique audience levels for AOL Autos and MSN Autos have a strong correlation to vehicle sales especially in the last 3-months (1.0; 0.90 respectively); however, Yahoo Autos seems to be quite unique in the sense that over the last 12-months and even more recently there is no correlation between visits and sales (0.01, last 3-months).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) when compared to vehicle sales over the last 12-months is showing a solid correlation (0.75) and an even stronger correlation (0.96) within the last 6-months.

What’s interesting is that MSN Autos and Yahoo Autos witnessed a slight uptick in visitors (unique audience) from September to October, which indicates a renewed interest on the part of vehicle shoppers, perhaps due to recent incentives or falling gas prices. A similar phenomenon is occurring when comparing total online automotive ad impressions to vehicle sales as there is a strong rolling 6-month correlation up until the September and October timeframe when auto sales go down but ad impressions remain constant.

Regardless, the increase in shopping behavior and automotive online ad exposure may be a good sign for automakers as we close out the year. Many automakers and dealers are counting on this behavior translating to sales just in time for the holidays.

*Source: Nielsen Online Services: NetView, US Home & Work; AdRelevance; BuzzMetrics.

Nielsen Online’s Pete Blackshaw gave a keynote speech on Friday, November 14^th, at the WOMMA Summit in Las Vegas in which he stressed the importance of companies’ staying grounded in the “bread and butter,” the core values and core issues of their businesses, and not just focusing on the hottest CGM buzz words. These core objectives, especially customer service and product experience, play a critical role in motivating consumers to spread positive or negative word of mouth buzz.

One brand working hard to improve its customer service and reverse the negative perception that currently exists in the minds of some consumers, is Nielsen Online client, Comcast. During Pete’s keynote speech, he enlisted Frank Eliason, the Director of Digital Care at Comcast, to provide examples of the interesting work his team is doing to improve customer service at Comcast. Comcast’s approach includes a five tier feedback platform including:

1. Comcast Central (email, phone, website)
2. Comcast Customer Connect (Facebook, Twitter)
3. Communities (Peer-to-Peer help)
4. Corporate Blog
5. Blogging on Other Sites (Consumerist, etc)

A few of the important takeaways from Eliason’s presentation:

• Listen to Your Customers
• Create a Rapid Response Culture
• Learn From Everyone in Your Organization

Afterwards, Pete reviewed the six drivers of credibility he outlines in his new book, “Satisfied Customers Tell Three Friends, Angry Customers Tell 3000″ and did a quick round of consulting in front of the symposium audience. (Pete heads Nielsen Online’s Digital Strategic Services). He then highlighted some of the key areas of credibility in which he thinks Comcast is winning with consumers and areas that Comcast has yet to master.

In case you missed it, you can read more about Pete’s keynote and see video highlights at the links below:

http://blog.futurelab.net/2008/11/video_highlights_from_womma_su.html

http://johnbell.typepad.com/weblog/2008/11/womma-approachi.html

http://search.twitter.com/search?q=pete+blackshaw

When details of the global financial crisis overtook the headlines in mid-September, consumers and brands began assessing their position in the economy and strategizing for the downturn. Retailers have reacted by announcing plans to offer deep discounts for the holidays, from high-end to mass-merchandise. Some have rolled out deals in advance of Black Friday. With reports of more and better deals from retailers and a bleak economic outlook for consumers, it would be natural to assume that consumers are hungry to take advantage of opportunities to save money. But will consumers tighten their belts so much that even deep discounts won’t get them spending?

Websites focusing on coupons and rewards historically prove to be popular places for consumers to learn about and share information on current discounts, but consumers didn’t rush to coupon sites in the weeks immediately following initial news of the economic fallout. In fact, traffic to coupon and rewards sites trends downward through much of October. As Black Friday nears, consumers are taking an increased interest in coupons and deals, shown by the graph below. Traffic to coupon sites is trending upward sharply in the first two weeks of November. The graph shows that nearly 21 million unique consumers visited a coupon or deal site during the week ending November 9.

While we don’t know what this means for retailer’s bottom lines and Q4 earnings, we do know that a growing number of consumers are online educating themselves about discounts and deals as the holidays approach.